2020 Winter Dredge Survey

KC_Jones · May 20, 2020, 11:50:52 AM

https://dnr.maryland.gov/fisheries/Pages/blue-crab/dredge.aspx

rdbeard · May 20, 2020, 12:11:34 PM

wow, every category is down from last year,WTF, what is the excuse this time?

Mikie · May 20, 2020, 04:35:16 PM

I say it every year - flawed methodology. If they still have any old time watermen working the boats in the survey, they probably shake their heads wondering why they're even bothering to dredge a bunch of spots. If the computer picks a bunch of random spots that the crabs like and normally bury for the Winter - the numbers look great. If the computer randomly picks a bunch of spots where the crabs don't like the conditions and don't bury - the numbers go down. Just because some mathematician at a University designs a model or system doesn't mean it works.

Mr. Ray III · May 20, 2020, 05:39:15 PM

Where is everyone who said last year "Next year is going to be great with all the little crabs".

Wallco99 · May 20, 2020, 08:00:16 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ray III on May 20, 2020, 05:39:15 PM
Where is everyone who said last year "Next year is going to be great with all the little crabs".

They are still catching little crabs. The big ones don't feed anymore.

rdbeard · May 20, 2020, 08:49:43 PM

they are spinning this on the news channels like a top and say this is good news oh and the reason this year for the low juvi #s is currents and wind yea that must be it.

crabbymike17 · May 21, 2020, 03:10:24 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ray III on May 20, 2020, 05:39:15 PM
Where is everyone who said last year "Next year is going to be great with all the little crabs".

I'm here Ray. I still believe the same. I agree with what Mikie said. The dredge report is not an indication of harvest prediction in my opinion. Let's see how it turns out. The juvenile counts last year where crazy. I'm hoping to get them this season.

KC_Jones · May 21, 2020, 04:36:44 PM

Quote from: crabbymike17 on May 21, 2020, 03:10:24 PM
I'm here Ray. I still believe the same. I agree with what Mikie said. The dredge report is not an indication of harvest prediction in my opinion. Let's see how it turns out. The juvenile counts last year where crazy. I'm hoping to get them this season.

I think we are all hoping for the same.

Neither Crab · October 16, 2020, 03:59:05 PM

They sure got this one wrong. They've been doing this for 25 years.
A waste of taxpayers money .

crabbymike17 · February 12, 2021, 07:24:58 PM

I'm no expert for sure. The reports are based upon one thing only (dredge) and often need interpretation to coincide with actual harvest from prior/current year. The 2020 harvest was probably the most predictable to me based upon 2019 juvenile catch combined with the report combined with mild winter and combined with low rains. I factor a lot of things into the equation when making my best prediction. Example, we're currently experiencing a real winter with colder than prior year temps including snow, these to me are negatives that impact the over-wintering of crabs which can be realized in this years harvest, etc. Quote, "If you want to know the road ahead, ask the person who's been there".