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Author Topic: Bay-wide Blue Crab Winter Dredge Survey, update 2008  (Read 19516 times)
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lreops
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« on: January 16, 2009, 12:59:04 PM »

Some more winter reading;

http://www.dnr.state.md.us/fisheries/crab/winter_dredge.html
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« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2009, 01:03:42 PM »

Thanks.  Wink
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« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2009, 01:35:10 PM »

don't know how it is up there.you can't trust a scientist with a net down here.they ether pull them backwards upside down.wrong length of cables,or simply don't go.
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« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2009, 03:23:25 PM »

Thanks,mirrors my catch  Cry
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« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2009, 01:07:52 PM »

The winter dredge survey is a crock.  A waste of time, money, and effort.
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« Reply #5 on: January 20, 2009, 01:20:10 PM »

agreed.  Wink
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« Reply #6 on: January 20, 2009, 07:40:50 PM »



   Wouldn't you think winter dredging would damage the bays plant life and crab and fish habitats.


   Sometimes i think if you let certain think to mother nature,she will repair her self,just an opinion.
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Dreampixels
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2009, 07:54:46 PM »

So far I have seen every organization that there is to help the bay and its recourses be called wrong either by some or many on this forum.

If the EPA makes a statement, they are wrong, if CBF makes a statement, they are wrong...if some other team or college makes a statement they too are wrong........ok I accept the fact that they are all wrong.......then what is the problem with the bay and surrounding areas and what needs to be done to correct it?

The more I hear, the more confused I get......unless everyone is saying there is nothing wrong and continue as always.

I am not talking about finger pointing, I am not asking who, I am asking WHAT and HOW.

What type of study needs to be done to get an accurate, or baseline to how many crabs may possibly be in the bay now.

What type of measures need to be in place to being a cealing process they will be effective, along with what would indeed be affective and how would you measure the effectiveness......

Instead of just saying this organization is full of BS ,to that one, lets hear something meaningful and corrective along with condemnation.

Dp
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« Reply #8 on: January 20, 2009, 08:00:58 PM »

So far I have seen every organization that there is to help the bay and its recourses be called wrong either by some or many on this forum.

If the EPA makes a statement, they are wrong, if CBF makes a statement, they are wrong...if some other team or college makes a statement they too are wrong........ok I accept the fact that they are all wrong.......then what is the problem with the bay and surrounding areas and what needs to be done to correct it?

The more I hear, the more confused I get......unless everyone is saying there is nothing wrong and continue as always.

I am not talking about finger pointing, I am not asking who, I am asking WHAT and HOW.

What type of study needs to be done to get an accurate, or baseline to how many crabs may possibly be in the bay now.

What type of measures need to be in place to being a cealing process they will be effective, along with what would indeed be affective and how would you measure the effectiveness......

Instead of just saying this organization is full of BS ,to that one, lets hear something meaningful and corrective along with condemnation.

Dp
Change is a scary word to some.I know that my catch sucks compared to the late 80's.I wish they were all wrong and magically things would improve good luck with that.I hope we save it before it's too late.
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« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2009, 08:16:26 PM »

Many Problems lay from years ago, in the 60's and 70's when wetlands were drained  by cutting mosquito ditches all over marshes everywhere..This hurt wetlands more than the people could understand.. Houses were built along shorelines and wetlands dried up during this time too.. And the Birth Of many Chemicals came to life in these times also..Oyster Bottoms were destroyed in the late 70's and early 80's due to DMX and Dermo, which many believe is cause from fertilizer and other chemicals...Look what DDT did to all the birds, I'm sure it hurt fish,Crabs and Oysters too...Tens of thousands of bushels of Oysters were killed in the Honga River where I grew up..Over Harvesting didn't kill em, they died on the oyster grounds,with the meat hanging out of the shell..

As far as the Dredging,  WHO said it was a good study to base crab populations on anyway?

(THE STATE)  NEVER TRUST THEM!!!!!!!!!!

How do you tell how many jellybeans are in a Jar? Run your fingers through em?  Nope dump the jar out and count em.. The only true way to count the amount of crabs in the Bay would be to drain the Bay, Count the Crabs and fill it back up..
Sounds STUPID don't it?  So does dredging a few miles and base a study on the entire Bay...JUST MY 2 CENTS..  And you might owe me change back.. GENE
« Last Edit: January 20, 2009, 08:25:07 PM by genecrabman » Logged

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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2009, 08:48:08 PM »

 Exzactly gene ,.....there are hot spots all over the bay ....  they may have missed them all  Undecided 
   just like fishing or crabing  there are good spots and bad ,...who says there hiting them evenly  Huh Roll Eyes
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2009, 09:01:45 PM »

How do you tell how many jellybeans are in a Jar? Run your fingers through em?  Nope dump the jar out and count em.. The only true way to count the amount of crabs in the Bay would be to drain the Bay, Count the Crabs and fill it back up..
Sounds STUPID don't it?  So does dredging a few miles and base a study on the entire Bay...JUST MY 2 CENTS..  And you might owe me change back.. GENE

Gene,

I don't think you can compare counting jellybeans in a jar to trying to count crabs in the bay. It is easy to dump out a jar of jelly beans and count them. Not so easy to find all the crabs in the bay and count them. It would be impossible and ridiculously expensive to try to count every crab in the bay. The purpose of the dredge is not to get an exact count.  They are trying to estimate the number.

We studied a lot of the formulas in the statistics class that I took last year. The scientists who do these studies come up with statistical formulas and then apply the number that they actually count to the formulas to get an estimate of the actual number of crabs in the bay. Is it exact, no, but I bet it is a realistic estimate. Probably the most accurate number you can get without exactly counting them.

Michele
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2009, 09:03:47 PM »

Exzactly gene ,.....there are hot spots all over the bay ....  they may have missed them all  Undecided 
   just like fishing or crabing  there are good spots and bad ,...who says there hiting them evenly  Huh Roll Eyes


I am sure that they take that into account when they come up with the statistical formulas for computing their estimates.
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captaincrab55
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2009, 09:07:53 PM »

Gene,

I don't think you can compare counting jellybeans in a jar to trying to count crabs in the bay. It is easy to dump out a jar of jelly beans and count them. Not so easy to find all the crabs in the bay and count them. It would be impossible and ridiculously expensive to try to count every crab in the bay. The purpose of the dredge is not to get an exact count.  They are trying to estimate the number.

We studied a lot of the formulas in the statistics class that I took last year. The scientists who do these studies come up with statistical formulas and then apply the number that they actually count to the formulas to get an estimate of the actual number of crabs in the bay. Is it exact, no, but I bet it is a realistic estimate. Probably the most accurate number you can get without exactly counting them.

Michele
One must remember that conditions (weather) change every year and bedtime for the crabs can change along with it...   
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2009, 09:10:34 PM »

One must remember that conditions (weather) change every year and bedtime for the crabs can change along with it...   

Do they schedule the dredge based on the weather conditions of is it done on a specific date every year? Hopefully they take those factors into account when they do the dredge too. I would think that they would.
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2009, 09:10:59 PM »

Too many things are "ESTIMATED"... The dredge Survey is Estimated, and so is the LANDINGS BY THE CRABBERS..It's too many ways NUMBERS are "FUDGED", by the Scientist and the Waterman..If I were a Commercial Crabber in Maryland, I'd send my form in each month with 3,000 bushels caught..Then at the end of the year crabs are plentiful... Problem solved..
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« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2009, 10:50:27 PM »

With winter dredging does it not make sense, the more years they do it the better their numbers in the average would be?

Certainly a 10 yr average woul be more accurate then the first year numbers.

The forest service can do the same thing on counting trees and right there are no exact numbers, but you can still get a baseline on what is happening.

The more and more averaging you do, the less and less variables come into play.

Knowing the volume of a the jar and the average size of the bean, you could come very very close to how many beans are in that jar. No you will hit the exact number only by luck with out measuring the jar and each bean.

Even if their studies miss by 5 million crabs on the conservative side, isn't that better then being sorry. Ceratinly no one can believe there are the same amount of crabs in the bay then there was say 10 yrs ago.

I just do not understand the negativity.
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« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2009, 06:24:06 AM »

Last winter we didn't have any ice. The water stayed warmer, the crabs didn't bury into the bottom. A dredge survey won't work when the crabs aren't stationary. This year the water is much colder and more crabs will bury. DNR's emergency regulations will appear to have worked because this winter survey will show population is up.
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« Reply #18 on: January 21, 2009, 07:19:16 AM »

 i believe the negitive attitude comes from frustration because of the condition of the bay which by far is the #1 reason for the decline of the crabs in the chesapeake. then more negitivity because the problem probably can't be fixed, to many people living in the watershed. i fear it's too late.
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« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2009, 07:27:01 AM »

With winter dredging does it not make sense, the more years they do it the better their numbers in the average would be?

Certainly a 10 yr average woul be more accurate then the first year numbers.

The forest service can do the same thing on counting trees and right there are no exact numbers, but you can still get a baseline on what is happening.

The more and more averaging you do, the less and less variables come into play.

Knowing the volume of a the jar and the average size of the bean, you could come very very close to how many beans are in that jar. No you will hit the exact number only by luck with out measuring the jar and each bean.

Even if their studies miss by 5 million crabs on the conservative side, isn't that better then being sorry. Ceratinly no one can believe there are the same amount of crabs in the bay then there was say 10 yrs ago.

I just do not understand the negativity.






DP,   They are putting crabbers out of WORK.......That should make a difference..The guys "crunching" the numbers don't have the wisdom that guys who have crabbed their whole life,when it comes to crabs.. Crabs migrate  differently every year. After  A hurricane Crabs are butt deep everywhere, I asked one of our States Biologist where all the crabs came from?  His answer was I DON'T KNOW...And he's one of the best  Biologist in North Carolina, and has a Plaque that says he's a Dr.  These Biologist don't listen to the Crabbers, they already have their minds set, I'm sure many times they change their formulas to meet the numbers they need..I've been to A meeting here in NC when A biologist (who was well respected) by many people.. Made a Statement that we were over harvesting crabs in our sound, another Biologist  working with him also did a study using the same numbers... There was a 5 million pound difference in the 2 studies.. Shocked  When the 1st Biologist heard the 5 million pound difference, he said... Give me about 10 minutes and let me "TWEEK" a few numbers,and see what we get,in 10 minutes he came back to the Panel, and after "TWEEKING" a few numbers gained 5 MILLION POUNDS of crabs..

SO AFTER THAN NO ONE WILL EVER TELL ME TO HAVE FAITH AND TRUST IN A CRAB STUDY....OR THE PEOPLE DOING THEM..

TWEEKING NUMBERS IS CRAZY... THATS HOW "FORMULAS" WORK... 

AND IT PUTS WATERMAN OUTTA WORK..



GENE
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